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In reviewing , these estimated earnings numbers appear more than reasonable.
If Wells Fargo were to keep its current dividend payout ratio, the estimated earnings materialize as forecast and Wells Fargo trades at 15 times earnings, this would equate to a 12.4% yearly return for the next 5 years.
Below we have included the Estimated Earnings and Return Calculator to illustrate how analysts are presently viewing this company.
Specifically, the calculator uses the consensus median estimates from analysts reporting to S&P Capital IQ for the next four fiscal years along with a long-term growth rate.
Yet even this seemingly worst case scenario isn’t quite the bad news story it’s cracked up to be in the intermediate term.
Below we have included the performance result table starting from 12/31/2008.
Specifically, let’s drill down to a single bank stock and say that we knew for certain that Wells Fargo’s (WFC) share price would drop by more than 70%.
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Since the end of 1995, an investor would have received total returns of 11.3% against the S&P 500’s return of 7.3% during the same time period.
Expressed in another way, a hypothetical ,000 investment would now be worth about ,000 if invested in Wells Fargo while it would “only” be worth ,000 in the index.
If you bought shares at the end of any year ranging from 1996 until today, not only would you have a positive return, but also Wells Fargo would have beat or tied the performance of the index in 94% (17 out of 18) of the occurrences.
An astute reader might imagine that the one period of “underperformance” for Wells Fargo was directly prior to the company’s 70% price decline.